What to expect next from Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Iran war
The Ukraine-Russia War: A War of Attrition
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has taken a significant turn, with Russia gaining the upper hand in what can only be described as a war of attrition. Despite what some media outlets might suggest, Russia has been steadily draining Ukraine and NATO’s resources, making territorial gains at a consistent pace.
The recent developments indicate that Russia has received a “free pass” to escalate its attacks in Ukraine. This escalation comes at a time when the United States has admitted it cannot continue supplying certain weapons, such as Patriot missiles and specific artillery shells, due to its own dwindling stockpiles.
The Production Reality
The United States can only produce approximately 600 Patriot interceptor missiles annually—a figure that has reportedly been increased by just 10% since 2022. This production capacity is woefully inadequate when compared to the scale of the conflict. Russia is capable of launching over 100 drones and missiles in a single day, as evidenced by one particular attack involving 550 drones and missiles.
To intercept these attacks, Ukraine would need at least two to three interceptor missiles for each incoming threat. The math doesn’t add up in Ukraine’s favour, especially as their air defences continue to weaken.
The Power of Iranian Missiles
The recent conflict demonstrated the impressive capability of Iranian missiles to cause significant damage even at long distances. This poses a serious threat to U.S. bases in the region, making full-scale war against Iran an extremely risky proposition for any U.S. president.
The Role of the United States
The United States faces a dilemma. Engaging in a full-scale war against Iran would contradict the “Make America Great Again” sentiment that many Americans support. U.S. citizens increasingly oppose interventionist foreign policies after decades of costly wars.
Having already bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, the next escalation would necessarily be full-scale war—something the U.S. appears reluctant to pursue, especially given the demonstrated power of Iranian missiles against U.S. bases in the region.
Conclusion
The global conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to evolve in complex ways. Russia appears to be gaining the upper hand in Ukraine as NATO’s resources dwindle. In the Middle East, Israel’s aggressive tactics have created a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, while tensions with Iran simmer beneath a temporary ceasefire.
What remains clear is that perpetual war is unsustainable for all parties involved. The coming months will be critical in determining whether diplomatic solutions can prevail or if we will witness further escalation of these devastating conflicts.
