The Growing Risk of Civil War in Israel: A Deep Dive Into Internal Divisions

Israel, a nation constantly in the headlines for its external conflicts, is facing a growing internal crisis that threatens the very fabric of its society. Recent polls suggest that 60% of Israelis believe a civil war is possible in their country – a stark reality reported by Israeli media itself, not foreign propaganda.

The Alarming Signs of Internal Division

A poll conducted by the Jewish People Policy Institute found that 60% of the Israeli public perceives a genuine danger of civil war. This sentiment isn’t limited to ordinary citizens; prominent Israeli politicians have expressed similar concerns. A leftist politician stated he “wouldn’t be surprised if people started shooting at each other in the streets very soon.” Even a former Israeli Prime Minister and an ex-Supreme Court Chief have warned about the possibility of civil war.

The former Supreme Court Chief pointed out that the growing rift between different segments of Israeli society has reached dangerous levels, with insufficient efforts to address these divisions. He also criticized Prime Minister Netanyahu’s dismissal of the Shin Bet (Israel’s internal intelligence agency) chief, which has become a major trigger point in this crisis.

The Ethnic and Ideological Divide

At the heart of Israel’s internal tensions lies a profound ethnic and ideological divide between two main Jewish groups:

Ashkenazi Jews vs. Mizrahi Jews

Ashkenazi Jews:

European origin, predominantly white

Migrated from Europe during the Holocaust and earlier

Tend to vote center or left politically

Control most of Israel’s institutions and power structures

Mizrahi Jews:

Middle Eastern or North African origin

Arrived after Israel was established

Typically vote right-wing

Have darker skin tones and different cultural backgrounds

This division creates a complex dynamic where one side feels “too Jewish for Arab neighbors” while the other feels “too Arab for Ashkenazi Jews.” The ideological differences stem from their distinct historical backgrounds and cultural contexts.

The Power Struggle

The current tension centers around control of Israel’s institutions:

The “deep state” consisting of Ashkenazi Jews who dominate the Supreme Court, military leadership, and technocratic positions

The right-wing government led by Netanyahu, supported by extremist figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who have strong backing from settlers in the West Bank (what they call Judea and Samaria)

A critical aspect of this struggle is Netanyahu’s attempt to dismiss the Shin Bet chief, which the Supreme Court (dominated by Ashkenazi Jews) opposed. This represents a broader battle for control over the country’s security apparatus and decision-making processes.

The Constitutional Crisis

Adding fuel to this volatile situation is Israel’s lack of a formal constitution. Instead, the country operates on a basic set of laws. Netanyahu’s government has been pushing for judicial reforms that would limit the Supreme Court’s power, triggering widespread protests even before October 7, 2023.

The current government includes far-right extremists like Ben-Gvir, who has his own militia separate from the regular army. This creates a dangerous situation where the military itself could become divided along ethnic and ideological lines.

The Impact of War and External Pressure

The ongoing conflicts with Gaza and other neighbours have exacerbated internal tensions. Many Israelis are exhausted by the prolonged fighting, with 40% reporting depression and anxiety symptoms. The Israeli Defence Forces, designed for quick wars rather than prolonged conflicts, is seeing many reservists refusing to report for duty.

Furthermore, about 40% of Israelis are considering leaving the country altogether. Most Israelis hold dual nationality, making emigration a viable option.

The Dangerous Implications

While some might view Israel’s internal strife with satisfaction, it’s important to remember that any civil conflict has severe humanitarian consequences. More concerning is Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons – if these fall into the wrong hands during a period of instability, the consequences could be catastrophic on a global scale.

Conclusion

Israel stands at a critical crossroads. The deep ethnic, ideological, and political divisions that have long simmered beneath the surface are now threatening to boil over into open conflict. While the outcome remains uncertain, what is clear is that Israel faces not only external challenges but also an existential internal crisis that could reshape the future of the country and impact the entire region.

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